Unrest before, during and after the ballot? : Nationwide elections could lead to further unrest
June 14, 2021 (Sene 7, 2013 EC)
GPE Public Relations Department
Genocide Prevention in Ethiopia (GPE; @gpethiopia) would like to issue grave concerns relating to the upcoming federal elections in Ethiopia to be held on June 21, 2021. In recent months, a number of reports have sparked concerns surrounding the upcoming elections and what may unfold as a result, especially considering how historic elections under the previous regime of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)-led Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition resulted in security forces massacring civilians. While international bodies have expressed concern over lack of preparedness from the ruling Prosperity Party of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali, other obvious hurdles also complicate the running of elections. For starters, the conflict in the Tigray region between the army of the federal government and the renegade TPLF has made regional elections nearly impossible, all political opposition has withdrawn from elections in the Oromia region leaving the regional Oromo Prosperity Party unchallenged and lastly, unabated ethnic massacres across the country has left millions of internally displaced persons (IDPs). GPE recently published an article on the forgotten and critically endangered Amhara IDPs, displaced as a result of massacres in the Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz, Amhara and Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People’s regions, perpetrated by militants tied to the Oromo Liberation Front/Army (OLF/A), Gumuz militias with close affiliation to the Benishangul-Gumuz (BSG) regional administration, and the TPLF.
In addition, to the disarray among citizens across various regions, other logistic and otherwise preparatory hurdles make the election unlikely to commence in an orderly way. According to a 2021 joint International Republican Institute (IRI)/National Democratic Institute (NDI) pre-election assessment delegation report the delegation identified numerous areas for concern including over matters such as political space and lack of comprehensive inclusive dialogue:
“Ethiopia’s 2021 elections, scheduled for June 5, could be an opportunity for building on recent reforms and developing more inclusive, transparent and accountable governance in the country. However, significant difficulties, including widespread insecurity and ethnic conflicts, delays in National Election Board of Ethiopia’s (NEBE’s) candidate and voter registration procedures, poor cooperation from some state governments, boycotts and threats of boycotts by several political parties with broad constituencies, as well as the COVID-19 public health crisis, threaten the ability of voters and parties to participate in the process and, thereby, the potential for credible elections. Serious and concerted efforts prior to Election Day by all stakeholders are necessary to hold meaningful elections and lay the groundwork for national reconciliation and democratic progress beyond the elections.”
Last month, the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) released its voters registration progress update outlining total registered voters by region. According to the update, the greatest number of registered voters was in the Oromia region at 14,301,855 (40.3 % of the est. 35,467,001 people based on 2017 data) followed by the Amhara region at 5,205,011 (24.6 % voter registration of the est. 21,134,988 based on 2017 data) and then by the Somali region at 3,844,129 (66.9 % voter registration of the est. 5,748,998 based on 2017 data). Drastically varying proportions of voter registration warrant investigations into distribution practices. Furthermore, in the absence of reliable census data in these regions, it is possible census reports of specific demographic categories are not accurately represented. And this is compounded by the ethnic federalism system which undermines regional citizenship of select ethnic groups and thereby undermines their political representation in the region.
In addition, political opposition candidates have been assassinated in broad daylight adding to growing fears that a peaceful election will not be achieved. In April 2021, Mr. Berihun Asferaw, a political opposition candidate for the National Movement of Amhara (abbrev. NAMA, @NAMA_at_ABIN) party running in the Wonberma District of Metekel zone, BSG region, was assassinated in a region known for being hostile to ethnic Amhara civilians and members of regional minorities such as ethnic Agaw, Shinasha and Oromo civilians which are targeted by ethnic Gumuz militias affiliated to the regional BSG admin of the BSG Prosperity Party.
These concerns are on top of a crackdown on genuine political opposition such as members of Balderas for True Democracy (@BalderasAddis), an opposition political party that was campaigning for representation in the capital of Addis Ababa. Top officials of Balderas including chairman Eskinder Nega (who was arrested for the second time in less than a year) and officials Sintayehu Chekol, Aster Seyoum and Askal Demele were arbitrarily detained last Summer 2020 following the assassination of singer Haccalu Hundessa after which mobs of Oromo extremists massacred ethnic Amhara civilians across the Oromia region using the dog whistle term “neftegna”. A report by the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) called “It Did Not Feel Like We Had A Government”, released earlier this year, detailed the harrowing details of the unprecedented violence that took place including disturbing details of how massacres were orchestrated and how armed youth groups conspired with local officials and security forces to commit atrocities.
It goes without saying, the capital of Addis Ababa is the political center of Ethiopia making it invaluable to the ruling party’s political ambitions. However, it has not been spared from the stereotypical ethnic land claims characteristic to Ethiopia’s ethnic federalism system. Namely, among ethnic Oromo nationalists, Addis Ababa is referred to as “Finfinne” and this has sparked waves of ethnonationalist sentiments of land claiming and more importantly, ethnic cleansing of non-Oromo from the city. Several officials of the ruling Oromo division of the Prosperity Party have also made mention of Finfinne in speeches to their Oromo constituents perhaps with intentions of rallying support and strengthening their political base. According to the 2021 Quarterly Q1 report from the Amhara Association of America (AAA), at least 1,517 people have been forcefully evicted from their homes in Addis Ababa between January to March 2021 alone. This, and a slew of political scandals going back to 2018, saw onlookers soured as the Addis Ababa city administration first under Deputy Mayor Takele Uma (@TakeleUma) and now under Adanech Abiebie (@AdanechAbiebie), has been accused of favoring citizens of their ethnic group the Oromo in providing public services, legislation, hiring practices, property and resource allocation and other factors.
In conclusion, GPE would like to express concern over going forward with elections in the absence of overall peace and capability of millions of citizens to vote amidst conflict and imminent danger, a genuine commitment to democratic values including imprisonment of opposition parties, and a seeming intent to influence the judiciary, electoral system and other institutions to rig the election to legitimize the ruling Prosperity Party. Above all other things, GPE once again calls on the ruling party to ensure safety of civilians, hold perpetrators of human rights violations and atrocities accountable and implement inclusive dialogue with peaceful and genuine political parties while excluding terrorist groups such as the TPLF, the OLF, the BSG regional administration and their affiliates, the Gumuz militias.
